Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.599862 0.693360 0.795721 0.915979 1.053271 1.204995 1.385258
2025-06-08 0.426148 0.548704 0.696783 0.888299 1.128831 1.420270 1.799495
2025-06-15 0.362398 0.504168 0.687935 0.942307 1.283834 1.724890 2.335821
2025-06-22 0.291964 0.433628 0.628438 0.913830 1.318810 1.869994 2.673534
2025-06-29 0.240850 0.378930 0.578917 0.886756 1.345060 1.997679 2.991745
2025-07-06 0.203012 0.336534 0.539199 0.865352 1.372201 2.123569 3.313357
2025-07-13 0.181860 0.315970 0.528252 0.883705 1.457514 2.338899 3.783054
2025-07-20 0.169643 0.307631 0.534538 0.928361 1.586274 2.629548 4.391931
2025-07-27 0.156171 0.295001 0.531720 0.956774 1.690199 2.888551 4.971616
2025-08-03 0.141484 0.278018 0.519100 0.966358 1.762342 3.100559 5.490831
2025-08-10 0.126857 0.259006 0.500368 0.962465 1.809662 3.273416 5.956616
2025-08-17 0.113446 0.240392 0.479957 0.952748 1.844649 3.426471 6.398806
2025-08-24 0.101698 0.223751 0.461810 0.946188 1.886460 3.598201 6.894995
2025-08-31 0.088682 0.202754 0.432855 0.915781 1.880769 3.684404 7.245479
2025-09-07 0.086100 0.203384 0.446805 0.971248 2.045065 4.097014 8.233473
2025-09-14 0.075707 0.185450 0.420543 0.941938 2.038618 4.185875 8.614341
2025-09-21 0.066770 0.169480 0.396403 0.914077 2.031704 4.272066 8.995339
2025-09-28 0.059398 0.156068 0.376138 0.892050 2.034209 4.376080 9.418569
2025-10-05 0.055817 0.151296 0.374573 0.910937 2.125314 4.665871 10.239623
2025-10-12 0.054340 0.151556 0.384557 0.956890 2.279439 5.097328 11.385397
2025-10-19 0.051847 0.148860 0.387240 0.986128 2.398839 5.464696 12.423791
2025-10-26 0.048406 0.143165 0.382010 0.995989 2.474913 5.744827 13.296253
2025-11-02 0.044534 0.135728 0.371567 0.991983 2.518142 5.956082 14.033698